The hosting of US nuclear weapons at RAF Lakenheath

In March 2023, a document from the US Office of the Under Secretary of Defense disclosed that £39 million had been allocated to build new facilities that could host nuclear weapons at RAF Lakenheath.

The variable yield aspect of the weapons is important as it means they can be used ‘tactically’ and ‘strategically’. As such, a foreign power could see locating this type of weapons system as a change in the nuclear posture on the British Isles, thus changing the strategic and tactical calculations for that nation in relation to the UK.

As such, it is vital that any UK government, incoming or outgoing, carefully considers what it would mean for the UK’s nuclear posture for the US to host such a weapons system at RAF Lakenheath. 

Policymakers need to carefully consider what the deployment of these systems would mean for the UK, both in terms of risk and benefits. To do this, effective wargaming needs to be performed by the UK government to determine what this could mean for new pathways for nuclear escalation. This could be done by using research by Chatham House and the Behavioural Insights Team, looking at the application of behavioural science in nuclear decision-making. Their work highlights the need for small well-signposted changes that deal with hypercomplex nuclear systems so as not to create unintended escalations due to a lack of cultural understanding. As shown in this brief, the RAF Lakenheath situation could be seen as a significant change that doesn’t consider the Russian strategic culture around the use of tactical nuclear weapons.  

Once this is done, deconflicting strategies must be developed to prevent unintended escalation. An example of this could be British F35s being mistaken for American nuclear-armed F35s. Along with this, risk assessments need to be made around possible nuclear accidents at RAF Lakenheath, as well as if there was an attack on the base and what this would mean for the southeast of England. 

Given that the UK would be taking on many of the strategic and tactical risks by hosting these weapons , careful consideration should be made about whether the UK should have some of its own. This is especially topical given the growing complexities of the Trident and its recent failures. Having these systems in the UK would allow for leverage when it comes to possible NATO negotiations with a future Trump government, so it should be made clear that it is only under the UKs permission that these systems can be located on British soil.