The Istanbul canal: Implications for international security

Top lines

In June 2021, the Turkish government began construction of the Istanbul Canal, a new waterway just West of the Bosporus Strait. The Canal is Turkey’s largest ever infrastructure project, estimated to cost $15 billion. It will offer an alternative route for commercial and military vessels travelling between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. 

This Canal poses concerns for the Montreux Convention (1936), an international agreement which regulates the movement of commercial and military vessels into and out of the Black Sea. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Article 19 of the Convention was invoked to prevent belligerent parties from moving warships through the Turkish Straits.

Despite the stability the Convention brings to the Black Sea region, it currently appears as though the new Canal will either be governed outside of the Convention or that its construction will result in its renegotiation. Both of these changes would increase Turkey’s leverage to negotiate with major military players in the region, and likely elicit a strong negative reaction from Russia.

While there may be a strategic benefit from these changes by allowing NATO a greater presence in the Black Sea, it enhances the potential for military escalation between NATO and Russia, and risks sparking deteriorating relations in the already unstable Black Sea region.

Labour should keep a close watch on developments on Turkish elections taking place on Sunday 14 May 2023 and oppose the Canal’s construction. Second, Labour should place pressure on the UK government to understand the potential security and economic consequences of the Canal, with particular awareness of the sensitive nature of these issues in light of an aggressive Russia. Third, Labour should build a solid foundation of knowledge around the Montreux Convention, to prepare for potential future renegotiation.

Photo: Istanbul (Turkey) - Estambul (Turquía). Copyright Jose A. via Flickr.