Türkiye’s Pivot to China: Balancing Strategic Autonomy and Western Alliances

TOP LINES: 

  • Türkiye’s pivot to China presents both challenges and opportunities for UK foreign policy, requiring a nuanced approach to maintain strategic interests while adapting to shifting global dynamics. 

  • The UK must balance its NATO commitments and Western alliances with the need to engage Türkiye as a potential mediator in complex international situations, particularly in regions where Western access is limited.

  • Türkiye’s relationship with China has evolved significantly, reflecting Ankara’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and economic diversification. 

  • The relationship is characterised by economic synergy, particularly through the alignment of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with Türkiye’s Middle Corridor Project. 

  • Türkiye views its engagement with China and organisations like BRICS as a way to amplify its global influence and develop alternatives to Western-dominated institutions. 

  • Türkiye’s approach is defined by a ’360-degree foreign policy’ that prioritises flexibility and strategic independence. 

  • While economically beneficial, the Türkiye-China relationship faces challenges, including significant trade imbalances favouring China and competing interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus. 

  • The Uyghur issue in Xinjiang remains a point of tension, though Türkiye has recently softened its rhetoric to focus on mutual economic and political gains. 

  • Türkiye’s NATO membership creates structural constraints on its relationship with China, as China is viewed as a challenger to the Western liberal order. 

  • Türkiye’s engagement with China does not signify a rejection of NATO or the EU, but rather an effort to reduce dependency on Western allies and maximise its national interests in a changing global landscape.

    Image courtesy of Unsplash and taken by Ahmet Demiroğlu

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The New Diplomacy Projects Submission to the Security and Defence Review